Despite anxieties about "de-dollarization" and a potential "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and currencies, US equities have defied expectations, outperforming global markets and reaching new highs. This article analyzes the recent performance of US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, comparing it to previous market cycles and highlighting the factors that have contributed to the resilience of the American market. It concludes that while short-term anxieties may persist, the current performance suggests a more nuanced and less catastrophic outcome than some initial projections.
The past three months have witnessed a remarkable performance by US equities, defying prevailing anxieties about "de-dollarization" and the so-called "stock-bond-currency triple kill." Despite concerns of capital flight, US stocks have not only recovered from recent lows but have also surged to new highs, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rebounding by a significant 35% from its April low. Counterintuitively, US Treasury yields have not experienced the anticipated surge, and while the US dollar has remained somewhat weak, the feared prolonged decline hasn't materialized. Importantly, capital flows, both into and out of US stocks and bonds, have exhibited a more volatile but ultimately less dramatic pattern than initially predicted.
This resilience runs contrary to some of the prevailing narratives. The recent market performance aligns with the consistent view articulated by analysts, who, as early as April 8th, highlighted the attractive valuation of the Nasdaq, with its P/E ratio falling to around 20 times, as a potential buying opportunity. This position, outlined in previous reports, cautioned against short-selling and suggested that the anxieties surrounding the "triple kill" stemmed more from short-term liquidity concerns and extrapolated long-term projections than from fundamental issues. Further analysis in these reports indicated that the previous "triple kill" scenarios had distinct characteristics, and the current situation was likely different.
Supporting evidence for this perspective comes from market data. Charts presented by a leading financial research firm, based on FactSet and Bloomberg data, demonstrate the outperformance of US equities compared to global markets since the April low. Independent data from EPFR confirms the ebb and flow of overseas fund flows into US equities, showing a temporary outflow followed by a return of investment. Similar data regarding foreign bond funds also supports this interpretation.
The resilience of the US stock market, coupled with the more moderate response of the bond market and the dollar, suggests that the current situation may be more nuanced than the initial anxieties suggested. While short-term volatility may persist, the underlying fundamentals and the positive market response to the evolving situation point towards a more sustainable trajectory for US equities. The recent performance suggests that the market is likely to react to and adjust to new information and realities, rather than succumbing to sweeping, generalized anxieties. Further observation and analysis will be necessary to definitively assess the long-term impact of these developments.
Summary: TikTok, facing a potential US ban on January 19, 2024, has filed an emergency motion to halt the enforcement of the order. This article explores the implications of this legal challenge, examining the strategic considerations driving TikTok's resistance, and the potential ramifications for China's global communication strategy and the future of social media.
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