Despite pre-emptive anxieties about a "de-dollarization" and a simultaneous collapse of US equities, bonds, and currency ("股债汇三杀"), the US stock market defied expectations, outperforming global markets and hitting new highs. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), passed by a narrow margin in the House of Representatives, didn't trigger the predicted market turmoil. This article analyzes the surprisingly robust performance of US equities and bonds, placing it within the context of recent market analysis and predictions.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), a significant piece of legislation, recently passed the US House of Representatives. The bill's passage, initially met with concerns about its potential impact on the US economy and financial markets, has surprisingly not triggered the expected market volatility. Instead, the US stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, has shown impressive resilience, outpacing global markets and reaching new all-time highs. This counterintuitive performance stands in stark contrast to the pre-emptive fears of a "de-dollarization" and a debilitating "stock-bond-currency triple kill."
Over the past three months, the market has defied projections of a significant decline in US equities, bonds, and currency. Despite anxieties surrounding the OBBA, the Nasdaq has rebounded by a remarkable 35% from its recent lows. Similarly, US Treasury bond yields have not experienced the anticipated upward surge, and while the US dollar has remained weak, the decline has not reached the alarming levels initially predicted. Even more surprising, capital flows that had temporarily exited the US stock and bond markets have returned.
This unexpected market stability aligns with the conclusions of recent market analyses. As early as April 8th, our analyses suggested that undervalued valuations in the Nasdaq, with a P/E ratio of around 20 times, presented a compelling investment opportunity, and that short-selling the market was unwarranted. Concurrently, we emphasized that concerns about a "stock-bond-currency triple kill" were largely based on short-term liquidity pressures and overly extrapolated long-term anxieties. Our previous analyses, such as the article "《“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？》" and "《上次“股债汇三杀”发生了什么？》," provided a framework for understanding these market dynamics.
The recent performance of the US market highlights the complexity of predicting market reactions to significant legislative changes. While the OBBA undoubtedly represents a substantial policy shift, its impact on the market appears more nuanced than initially feared. The resilience of US equities and bonds could potentially be attributed to a confluence of factors, including robust underlying economic data, investor confidence, and the overall health of the global economy.
The recent market performance underscores the importance of careful and comprehensive analysis when assessing the potential consequences of significant policy decisions. It emphasizes the limitations of purely extrapolative analyses and the importance of considering a multitude of factors that can influence market behavior. Further analysis and monitoring are crucial to fully understanding the long-term implications of the OBBA and the ongoing dynamics in the US financial markets.
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